What’s Happening With Mortgage Rates in Ontario Right Now? | September 2026
If you’re buying a home, renewing your mortgage or considering a refinance, you may be wondering what’s actually happening with mortgage rates in Ontario right now.
There’s a lot of information out there, and one of the biggest sources of confusion is that fixed and variable mortgage rates don’t necessarily move for the same reasons.
Bank of Canada: What It Means for Mortgage Rates in Ontario
On September 2, 2026, the Bank of Canada kept its policy interest rate at 2.25%. The rate has remained at 2.25% since October 2025.
Inflation is still an important part of the picture. Statistics Canada reported that the Consumer Price Index increased 3.0% year-over-year in August 2026. In Ontario specifically, CPI inflation was 2.4% in August.
So does a Bank of Canada rate hold mean mortgage rates should stay exactly where they are?
Not necessarily.
Why Fixed and Variable Mortgage Rates Can Move Differently
Variable mortgage rates are generally connected to a lender’s prime rate. Prime rates are influenced by changes in the Bank of Canada’s policy rate, although each lender sets its own prime rate.
Fixed mortgage rates work differently. They are influenced more by Government of Canada bond yields and broader financial-market conditions. Bank of Canada research notes that five-year fixed mortgage rates are priced with reference to five-year government bond yields plus a mortgage premium.
That means fixed mortgage rates can move even when the Bank of Canada leaves its policy rate unchanged.
This is particularly relevant right now. The Government of Canada five-year benchmark bond yield was 3.65% on September 14, compared with 3.44% on September 8. Bond yields can change from day to day, so movements like these can put pressure on fixed mortgage pricing.
What Does This Mean for You?
There is no one answer that works for every borrower.
If you’re renewing, buying or refinancing, your decision can depend on much more than simply choosing the lowest rate you see advertised.
Things worth considering can include:
how comfortable you are with changing payments
how long you expect to keep the mortgage
prepayment privileges and penalties
whether you may sell or refinance before the end of the term
the flexibility of the mortgage product
your overall financial plans
For some people, the certainty of a fixed rate may be important. Others may be comfortable with the possibility of rate changes in exchange for the flexibility or features of a variable mortgage.
The important part is choosing a mortgage that fits your circumstances rather than trying to perfectly predict what interest rates will do next.
The Bank of Canada’s next scheduled interest-rate announcement is October 28, 2026.
Have Questions About Your Mortgage?
If you’re approaching a renewal, considering a purchase or wondering whether refinancing makes sense, I’m happy to help you review the options available to you.
Brigitte Tessier
Mortgage Agent Level 2
Referral Mortgages — FSRA Brokerage Licence #13316
FSRA Licence #M18001559
Information in this article is provided for general informational purposes only and does not constitute mortgage advice, a rate guarantee or a commitment to lend. Mortgage products, rates and qualification requirements vary by lender and individual circumstances. O.A.C.
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